Forecasting monthly rainfall and temperature patterns in Van Province, Türkiye, using ARIMA and SARIMA models: a long-term climate analysis

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dc.contributor.authorVeysel Süleyman Yavuz
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-14T06:55:57Z
dc.date.available2025-04-14T06:55:57Z
dc.date.issued2025-02-01
dc.departmentFakülteler, Mühendislik Fakültesi, İnşaat Mühendisliği Bölümü
dc.description.abstractThis study investigates monthly rainfall and temperature trends in Van Province, Türkiye, using ARIMA and SARIMA models, with a dataset spanning from 1955 to 2023. The ARIMA(3,1,0) model for rainfall and ARIMA(0,1,1) model for temperature were selected based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values, achieving AIC scores of 788.224 and 172.077, respectively. To address seasonality, SARIMA models were also applied, with SARIMA(3,1,0)(2,1,0)[12] for rainfall and SARIMA(0,1,1)(2,1,0)[12] for temperature, yielding AIC scores of 672.061 and 163.669. Diagnostic tests, including the Ljung–Box and Jarque–Bera tests, confirmed model adequacy by indicating minimal autocorrelation and normal residual distributions. These models successfully captured seasonal and longterm patterns, offering valuable insights for regional planning in water resource management and agriculture. The study underscores the potential of ARIMA and SARIMA models for climate forecasting, with suggestions for future enhancements using hybrid approaches to improve predictions under non-linear conditions.
dc.identifier.citationYavuz, V. S. (2025). Forecasting monthly rainfall and temperature patterns in Van Province, Türkiye, using ARIMA and SARIMA models: a long-term climate analysis. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 16(2), 800-818.
dc.identifier.doi10.2166/wcc.2025.798
dc.identifier.issn2040-2244
dc.identifier.issn2408-9354
dc.identifier.issue2
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-86000614572
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2025.798
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12604/8582
dc.identifier.volume16
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001435579900021
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ2
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.institutionauthorYavuz, Veysel Süleyman
dc.institutionauthorid0000-0002-5867-7677
dc.publisherIWA Publishing
dc.relation.ispartofJournal of Water and Climate Change
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.subjectARIMA
dc.subjectclimate forecasting
dc.subjectSARIMA
dc.subjectseasonal variability
dc.subjecttime series analysis
dc.subjectVan Province
dc.titleForecasting monthly rainfall and temperature patterns in Van Province, Türkiye, using ARIMA and SARIMA models: a long-term climate analysis
dc.typejournal-article
oaire.citation.issue2
oaire.citation.volume16

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