Forecasting monthly rainfall and temperature patterns in Van Province, Türkiye, using ARIMA and SARIMA models: a long-term climate analysis
Yükleniyor...
Tarih
2025-02-01
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
IWA Publishing
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
This study investigates monthly rainfall and temperature trends in Van Province, Türkiye, using ARIMA and SARIMA models, with a dataset spanning from 1955 to 2023. The ARIMA(3,1,0) model for rainfall and ARIMA(0,1,1) model for temperature were selected based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) values, achieving AIC scores of 788.224 and 172.077, respectively. To address seasonality, SARIMA models were also applied, with SARIMA(3,1,0)(2,1,0)[12] for rainfall and SARIMA(0,1,1)(2,1,0)[12] for temperature, yielding AIC scores of 672.061 and 163.669. Diagnostic tests, including the Ljung–Box and Jarque–Bera tests, confirmed model adequacy by indicating minimal autocorrelation and normal residual distributions. These models successfully captured seasonal and longterm patterns, offering valuable insights for regional planning in water resource management and agriculture. The study underscores the potential of ARIMA and SARIMA models for climate forecasting, with suggestions for future enhancements using hybrid approaches to improve predictions under non-linear conditions.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
ARIMA, climate forecasting, SARIMA, seasonal variability, time series analysis, Van Province
Kaynak
Journal of Water and Climate Change
WoS Q Değeri
Q2
Scopus Q Değeri
Q2
Cilt
16
Sayı
2
Künye
Yavuz, V. S. (2025). Forecasting monthly rainfall and temperature patterns in Van Province, Türkiye, using ARIMA and SARIMA models: a long-term climate analysis. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 16(2), 800-818.
