Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 with stochastic and deterministic approaches: Africa and Europe

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dc.authoridIGRET ARAZ, SEDA/0000-0002-7698-0709
dc.contributor.authorAtangana, Abdon
dc.contributor.authorIgret Araz, Seda
dc.date.accessioned2024-12-24T19:29:55Z
dc.date.available2024-12-24T19:29:55Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.departmentSiirt Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractUsing the existing collected data from European and African countries, we present a statistical analysis of forecast of the future number of daily deaths and infections up to 10 September 2020. We presented numerous statistical analyses of collected data from both continents using numerous existing statistical theories. Our predictions show the possibility of the second wave of spread in Europe in the worse scenario and an exponential growth in the number of infections in Africa. The projection of statistical analysis leads us to introducing an extended version of the well-blancmange function to further capture the spread with fractal properties. A mathematical model depicting the spread with nine sub-classes is considered, first converted to a stochastic system, where the existence and uniqueness are presented. Then the model is extended to the concept of nonlocal operators; due to nonlinearity, a modified numerical scheme is suggested and used to present numerical simulations. The suggested mathematical model is able to predict two to three waves of the spread in the near future.
dc.identifier.doi10.1186/s13662-021-03213-2
dc.identifier.issn1687-1847
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.pmid33495699
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85099657081
dc.identifier.scopusqualityN/A
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1186/s13662-021-03213-2
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12604/7311
dc.identifier.volume2021
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000612647800001
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.indekslendigikaynakPubMed
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.relation.ispartofAdvances in Difference Equations
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_20241222
dc.subjectStatistical analysis
dc.subjectExtended blancmange function
dc.subjectStochastic model
dc.subjectCOVID-19 spread with waves
dc.subjectModified numerical scheme
dc.titleModeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 with stochastic and deterministic approaches: Africa and Europe
dc.typeArticle

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