Forecasting Pistachio Production in Turkey: A Comparison of ARIMA, Grey, and Exponential Smoothing Models

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dc.contributor.authorOruk, Gorkem
dc.date.accessioned2024-12-24T19:33:00Z
dc.date.available2024-12-24T19:33:00Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.departmentSiirt Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThis research aims to forecast pistachio production in Turkey using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), the grey model (G.M. (1,1)), and Exponential Smoothing (Holt's and Brown's) models. The Food and Agriculture Organization provided the annual statistics on pistachio production in Turkey from 1961 to 2019, which was used in this study. Pistachio production is expected to increase between 2020 and 2030. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) statistics were used to assess the performance of the models. The G.M. (1,1) model was found to be significantly better than other models, and it was used to make future predictions. Results showed that the forecasted production value for 2020 was 157.80 thousand tons, rising to 302.86 thousand tons in 2030. Pistachio production is expected to increase during the next ten years.
dc.identifier.endpage186
dc.identifier.issn0031-7454
dc.identifier.issue2
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85134503615
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ4
dc.identifier.startpage180
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12604/7921
dc.identifier.volume105
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000862978600007
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ4
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherUniv Philippines Los Banos
dc.relation.ispartofPhilippine Agricultural Scientist
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzKA_20241222
dc.subjectpistachio
dc.subjectARIMA
dc.subjectgrey forecasting
dc.subjectexponential smoothing
dc.titleForecasting Pistachio Production in Turkey: A Comparison of ARIMA, Grey, and Exponential Smoothing Models
dc.typeArticle

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