Machine learning-based streamflow forecasting using CMIP6 scenarios: Assessing performance and improving hydrological projections and climate change

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dc.authoridKartal, Veysi/0000-0003-4671-1281
dc.contributor.authorKartal, Veysi
dc.date.accessioned2024-12-24T19:24:10Z
dc.date.available2024-12-24T19:24:10Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.departmentSiirt Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractWater is essential for humans as well as for all living organisms to sustain their lives. Therefore, any climate-driven change in available resources has significant impacts on the environment and life. Global climate models (GCMs) are one of the most practical methods to evaluate climate change. Based on this, this research evaluated the capability of GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to reproduce the historical flow of climate prediction centre data for the Konya Closed basin and to project the climate of the basin using the selected GCMs. Global climate models based on the CMIP6 under the scenario of common socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP 585) were used to analyse the climate change effect on streamflow of the study area by Bias Correction of GCM Models using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting, Regression Tree, and Random Forest methods. The coefficient of determination (R-2), mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) were used to assess the performance of the methods. Findings show that the Random Forest Model consistently outperformed other models in both the testing and training phases. A significant downward in the volume of water flowing through the region's rivers and streams in the next decades. It is critical to enhance climate-resilient water infrastructure financing, establish an early warning system for drought, introduce best management practices, implement integrated water resource management, public awareness, and support water research to alleviate the negative consequences of drought and increase resilience against the effects of climate change on Turkey's water resources.
dc.description.sponsorshipSpecial thanks to the General Directorate of Meteorology (MGM) and State Water Works (DSI) for providing the database used in this study.
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/hyp.15204
dc.identifier.issn0885-6087
dc.identifier.issn1099-1085
dc.identifier.issue6
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85197465222
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.15204
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12604/5877
dc.identifier.volume38
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001260200200006
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/A
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherWiley
dc.relation.ispartofHydrological Processes
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_20241222
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectCMIP6
dc.subjectmachine learning
dc.subjectstreamflow
dc.titleMachine learning-based streamflow forecasting using CMIP6 scenarios: Assessing performance and improving hydrological projections and climate change
dc.typeArticle

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