Advanced analysis in epidemiological modeling: detection of waves
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Tarih
2022
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Amer Inst Mathematical Sciences-Aims
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Mathematical concepts have been used in the last decades to predict the behavior of the spread of infectious diseases. Among them, the reproductive number concept has been used in several published papers to study the stability of the mathematical model used to predict the spread patterns. Some conditions were suggested to conclude if there would be either stability or instability. An analysis was also meant to determine conditions under which infectious classes will increase or die out. Some authors pointed out limitations of the reproductive number, as they presented its inability to help predict the spread patterns. The concept of strength number and analysis of second derivatives of the mathematical models were suggested as additional tools to help detect waves. This paper aims to apply these additional analyses in a simple model to predict the future.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
strength number, second derivative analysis, waves, piecewise modeling
Kaynak
Aims Mathematics
WoS Q Değeri
Q1
Scopus Q Değeri
Q1
Cilt
7
Sayı
10
