Temporal analysis of agricultural water footprint dynamics in Türkiye: Climate change impacts and adaptation

Climate change intensifies pressures on agricultural water resources, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. This study evaluates the interplay between climate variability and agricultural water footprint (WF) dynamics in Türkiye from 1990 to 2019, integrating trend analyses of WF components, virtual water content (VWC), and climate parameters. We assessed temporal trends and correlations using the Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, and Innovative Trend Analysis, focusing on 11 major crops. While some crops, like alfalfa, showed decreased yields and increased VWC, key crops (maize, wheat, cotton) exhibited substantial yield improvements, with some showing VWC reductions of up to 46 %. A key finding is that socio-economic and technological advancements have offset the negative effects of rising temperatures and declining relative humidity on evapotranspiration, leading to an overall reduction in the total agricultural water footprint. However, blue WF concurrently increased, signaling a growing reliance on irrigation. Climate correlations revealed distinct seasonal influences: June–July precipitation was inversely correlated with blue WF (r = −0.531), while spring (March–May) rainfall positively influenced green WF (r = 0.412). The observed decoupling of agricultural productivity growth from total WF reduction highlights the importance of technological advancements and optimized water use. However, the rising blue-to-green water ratio underscores sustainability risks in groundwater-dependent systems. These findings advocate for crop-specific adaptive strategies and integrated policies to reconcile agricultural productivity with water resource resilience under climate change. This study provides a framework for guiding sustainable water management in water-stressed regions facing climatic uncertainty.