Turkish Pistachio Production Projection with the ARMA Model
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Tarih
2023
Yazarlar
Dergi Başlığı
Dergi ISSN
Cilt Başlığı
Yayıncı
Kahramanmaras Sutcu Imam Univ Rektorlugu
Erişim Hakkı
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
Özet
Pistachio (Pistacia vera) is a hard-shelled fruit that has an important share in international trade. Pistachio is consumed as a snack and used in the sweet and confectionery industry. It is necessary to carry out studies related to production forecasting in order to predict the amount of pistachio production in the future, to make sustainable agricultural planning and to determine agricultural policies realistically. This study aims to predict Turkey's pistachio production for the period of 2022-2026 and to develop suggestions by using 61 years of data for the period 1961-2021 obtained from FAO and TUIK. Box-Jenkins' ARMA model was used in the production prediction for pistachios, and the most appropriate statistical results were obtained from the ARMA (2,3) model. According to the model results, it is predicted that Turkey's pistachio production in 2022 will increase by 58.93% compared to 2021 and reach 189,697 tons. It is predicted that pistachio production will be 130,100, 168,100, 105,982 and 132,166 tons in the years of 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026, respectively. It is understood that there will be an instability in production and efficiency due to periodicity in the predicted years. In order to prevent this situation, varieties with low periodicity tendency should be preferred, lands with irrigation facilities should be preferred instead of cultivation in arid and stony land, which is widely practiced in Turkey, and production should be made in irrigated conditions.
Açıklama
Anahtar Kelimeler
Pistachio, Time series, Forecast
Kaynak
Ksu Tarim Ve Doga Dergisi-Ksu Journal of Agriculture and Nature
WoS Q Değeri
Q4
Scopus Q Değeri
Cilt
26
Sayı
4
