Prediction of COVID-19 spread with models in different patterns: A case study of Russia

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dc.contributor.authorCetin, Mehmet Akif
dc.contributor.authorAraz, Seda Igret
dc.date.accessioned2024-12-24T19:30:08Z
dc.date.available2024-12-24T19:30:08Z
dc.date.issued2024
dc.departmentSiirt Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThis study deals with a mathematical model that examines the spread of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This model has been handled with different processes such as deterministic, stochastic, and deterministic-stochastic. First of all, a detailed analysis is presented for the deterministic model, which includes the positivity of the solution, the basic reproduction number, the disease, and endemic equilibrium points. Then, for the stochastic model, we investigate under which conditions, the solution exists and is unique. Later, model is reconsidered with the help of the piecewise derivative, which can combine deterministic and stochastic processes. Numerical simulations are presented for all these processes. Finally, the model has been modified with the rate indicator function. The model presenting these four different situations is compared with the real data in Russia. According to the results obtained from these situations, the model that is obtained by adding the rate indicator function predicts the COVID-19 outbreak in Russia more accurately. Thus, it is concluded that the model with the rate indicator function presents more realistic approach than the previous ones.
dc.identifier.doi10.1515/phys-2024-0009
dc.identifier.issn2391-5471
dc.identifier.issue1
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-85192277254
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ2
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1515/phys-2024-0009
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12604/7406
dc.identifier.volume22
dc.identifier.wosWOS:001209349000001
dc.identifier.wosqualityN/A
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherDe Gruyter Poland Sp Z O O
dc.relation.ispartofOpen Physics
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.snmzKA_20241222
dc.subjectCOVID-19 spread
dc.subjectfractional differentiation and integration
dc.subjectrate indicator function
dc.titlePrediction of COVID-19 spread with models in different patterns: A case study of Russia
dc.typeArticle

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