Application of the Artificial Neural Network model for prediction of monthly Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index using hydrometeorological parameters and climate indices in eastern Australia

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dc.authoridDeo, Ravinesh/0000-0002-2290-6749
dc.authoridsahin, mehmet/0000-0001-7942-9253
dc.contributor.authorDeo, Ravinesh C.
dc.contributor.authorSahin, Mehmet
dc.date.accessioned2024-12-24T19:25:21Z
dc.date.available2024-12-24T19:25:21Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.departmentSiirt Üniversitesi
dc.description.abstractThe forecasting of drought based on cumulative influence of rainfall, temperature and evaporation is greatly beneficial for mitigating adverse consequences on water-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, ecosystems, wildlife, tourism, recreation, crop health and hydrologic engineering. Predictive models of drought indices help in assessing water scarcity situations, drought identification and severity characterization. In this paper, we tested the feasibility of the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) as a data-driven model for predicting the monthly Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for eight candidate stations in eastern Australia using predictive variable data from 1915 to 2005 (training) and simulated data for the period 2006-2012. The predictive variables were: monthly rainfall totals, mean temperature, minimum temperature, maximum temperature and evapotranspiration, which were supplemented by large-scale climate indices (Southern Oscillation Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode and Indian Ocean Dipole) and the Sea Surface Temperatures (Nino 3.0, 3.4 and 4.0). A total of 30 ANN models were developed with 3-layer ANN networks. To determine the best combination of learning algorithms, hidden transfer and output functions of the optimum model, the Levenberg-Marquardt and Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton backpropagation algorithms were utilized to train the network, tangent and logarithmic sigmoid equations used as the activation functions and the linear, logarithmic and tangent sigmoid equations used as the output function. The best ANN architecture had 18 input neurons, 43 hidden neurons and 1 output neuron, trained using the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm using tangent sigmoid equation as the activation and output functions. An evaluation of the model performance based on statistical rules yielded time-averaged Coefficient of Determination, Root Mean Squared Error and the Mean Absolute Error ranging from 0.9945-0.9990, 0.0466-0.1117, and 0.0013-0.0130, respectively for individual stations. Also, the Willmott's Index of Agreement and the Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency were between 0.932-0.959 and 0.977-0.998, respectively. When checked for the severity (S), duration (D) and peak intensity (I) of drought events determined from the simulated and observed SPEI, differences in drought parameters ranged from -1.41-0.64%, -2.17-1.92% and -3.21-1.21%, respectively. Based on performance evaluation measures, we aver that the Artificial Neural Network model is a useful data-driven tool for forecasting monthly SPEI and its drought-related properties in the region of study. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.03.018
dc.identifier.endpage81
dc.identifier.issn0169-8095
dc.identifier.issn1873-2895
dc.identifier.scopus2-s2.0-84928136722
dc.identifier.scopusqualityQ1
dc.identifier.startpage65
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.03.018
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12604/6374
dc.identifier.volume161
dc.identifier.wosWOS:000355712600007
dc.identifier.wosqualityQ1
dc.indekslendigikaynakWeb of Science
dc.indekslendigikaynakScopus
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherElsevier Science Inc
dc.relation.ispartofAtmospheric Research
dc.relation.publicationcategoryMakale - Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi - Kurum Öğretim Elemanı
dc.rightsinfo:eu-repo/semantics/closedAccess
dc.snmzKA_20241222
dc.subjectArtificial Neural Network
dc.subjectDrought prediction in Australia
dc.subjectData-driven model
dc.subjectStandardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)
dc.titleApplication of the Artificial Neural Network model for prediction of monthly Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index using hydrometeorological parameters and climate indices in eastern Australia
dc.typeArticle

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